Recent results from the EU-funded RAMSES project suggest that towards the end of the century cities will be subject to drastically increased levels of heat stress. Based on simulations conducted with the newly developed UrbClim model, it was found that the number of heat wave days in cities will increase from a few per year, as recorded from 1986 to 2005, to more than ten per year between 2081 to 2100 - a tenfold increase. This increase will be caused both by the overall temperature rise associated with global warming and the urban heat island effect.

In a simulation involving 100 urban areas, evidence was found that Eastern European cities are particularly vulnerable to increased heat. Not only do these cities exhibit advanced urban heat island intensities, they are also located in a portion of the continent where the temperature increase due to climate change is expected to be the largest.

The next phase of the RAMSES project will focus on designing and testing strategies to alleviate adverse urban climate effects, including extreme heat stress. This will lead to efficient urban climate adaptation measures, for use by policy makers and other stakeholders.

For more information, visit www.urban-climate.eu, or contact koen.deridder@vito.be.