News

1 February 2021

A look to the year(s) ahead

A difficult year lies behind us, which was characterised to a large degree by the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to mitigate its impacts on people and the economy. In many places, we faced a dramatic situation in the first months of the year, with high death tolls, struggling and overburdened health systems and lockdowns with severe consequences for the economy and, more importantly, for many people. During the summer, we experienced a short period of relief and a glimpse of the “normal” life we had been used to, before the situation turned even worse during autumn leading to further lockdowns. Before Christmas, the timely announcement of available vaccines provided us with the ray of hope that was badly needed to overcome our tiredness and increasing frustration with the situation, and enable us to look more positively into 2021. Of course, it is obvious that the pandemic is not over yet, and it will continue to ask for our discipline and patience in order to finally win the fight against COVID-19 and to resume a normal life – albeit one that will still be different from what we had before the pandemic.

The interesting question is, what will we have learned from this experience as individuals and as societies? Have we become more aware that we are natural beings and that our health and well-being depend primarily on an intact environment, and rather not on permanent (over-) consumption? Have we taken note of the consequences of the social inequality in our societies, particularly in facing the impacts of the pandemic? Are we more able to appreciate the small things in life, our families and friends, over the vast distraction and entertainment machinery that is permanently pushed upon us?

There is no doubt that only when the pandemic is under control, will we more clearly see the dramatic impacts that this crisis will have on us in the longer term. Many countries have made tremendous efforts to mitigate the immediate economic and social consequences with public expenditure, and a considerable part of this has not gone into investments in the future. This will lead to tight public budgets in the years to come. It is likely that austerity politics will become a popular choice again. Only when the subsidies and compensation payments run out, will we see the full damage of the crisis, the structural impacts on trade, industry, culture and tourism, including the consequential job losses. All this will create considerable challenges for cities and will need a lot of hard work, creativity and long-term commitment to turn those into opportunities for sustainable development.

While politicians and society were focussing on the fight against the pandemic and its immediate impact, major long-term crises were continuing. Not surprisingly, 2020 was again one of the hottest years in history and all around the globe people are increasingly noticing the damaging consequences of climate change in their immediate environment and daily lives. Biodiversity is continuously decreasing, and species are disappearing at a high rate, while our ecological footprint is still growing. Although the pandemic temporarily broke down some of these trends and developments, such as lower CO2 emissions in some areas, this is not an indication of more permanent structural and cultural changes that we urgently need. It will be crucial that the subsidies and investments dedicated to the economic and societal recovery following the control of the pandemic will be used wisely and for deep and structural transformations of our societies. This needs to include the transformation of our financial and economic systems, as much as cultural transformation.

However, the pandemic has, in some ways, worn out our societies. People are tired, some even depressive, and have lost their optimism; more than a few are protesting and are getting increasingly aggressive. Public budgets will be much tighter in the coming years, unless rather unpopular measures are taken to raise public income. At the same time, social inequalities have become even more visible during the pandemic and have been aggravated by its economic consequences. Prominently – but not only – in the USA, we have seen public outrage, radical protest and attacks against our democratic institutions and ultimately the democratic system itself, often fuelled by populism, ‘fake news’, and conspiracy theories. Under these circumstances, it is hard to imagine where we can find positive attitudes and energy, the necessary political courage and democratic majorities, as well as the economic power and financial means to transform our societies towards climate neutrality and a truly sustainable economy and lifestyle. The pictures we see and the societal tendencies behind them can be frightening, but we have to keep in mind that these are still minorities, however radical and vocal they are. This is why we have to responsibly and courageously protect the silent majority and the integrity of our democratic systems, as well as the ecologic system and global resources for future generations.

It may not seem to be a good moment in time to overcome the tragedy of the commons, given that it seems to be much easier to find quick fixes and short term solutions in response to the immediate crisis, even if these sacrifice the well-being of future generations. It would be stupid, untrue and negligent to claim that the necessary transformation to protect our global resources (climate, biodiversity, water, soil, air) would not have a cost. In fact, in some parts it will even have a quite high cost both economically as well as in terms of culture. As we had to give up habits and behavioural features we used to enjoy before during the pandemic, we might also need to change our lifestyles and consumption patterns in the face of the global crisis. The major difference is that the threat seems much less immediate and, at least for now, comparatively slow coming, while the consequences will be much more dangerous and long-lasting.

A key question in our democratic societies is whether we will be able to find rational majorities that can see the benefits of higher costs and a potential slight discomfort in the shorter term, compared to the massive costs and potentially catastrophic impacts of inaction in the longer term. One of the important factors in this process will be the societal share of costs both financially and culturally. It needs to be ensured that those who have the most will carry a much higher load than the socially disadvantaged and low-income groups, and that regulation guarantees that the wealthier cannot buy themselves out of necessary limitations, which is a particular risk when market instruments are preferred over regulation.

In short, this is why the unavoidable societal transformation towards climate neutrality and a life within the global resource boundaries has to focus on social and cultural justice. Although this transformation is urgent, we may have to move more slowly than we would want or even need, in order to ensure the transformation is just, and to convince a majority of people to go along with and actively support change. The protection or even enhancement of our societal cohesion is a prerequisite for managing a successful transformation within a democratic society, in order to make it more profound and long lasting.

This is why local and regional governments are so important and will most likely be even more so in the future. Here is where active participation and involvement, co-design and co-creation are all possible, where democratic processes are most visible, and results and outcomes are tangible. However, this will not happen by itself and is a constant challenge for local politicians and administrations, particularly in times where the negative impacts of social media are apparent across all levels. This simply emphasises that the work be on the local and regional levels must be recognised, strengthened and supported. This includes political support, as well as the delegation of power and resources. The implementation of international agreements and political concepts like the European Green Deal will ultimately have to be realised on the local and regional level, and climate neutral, sustainable, just and inclusive societies will always be built from the bottom-up and not top-down.

Therefore, we hope that we can further collaborate and align as local and regional governments to generate the support we need in a multi-level governance system to live up to our ambition. In 2021, if COVID-19 allows for it, we will finally see a number of important events like the CBD CoP in China, CoP 26 in Glasgow, G7 meeting in the UK, and G20 meeting in Italy, which will provide opportunities to move our agenda. Within Europe, certainly the EU Green Deal will continue to be in the focus, since this is still developing as a work in progress. With the Mannheim Message and the Circular Cities Declaration, European Mayors and key organisations like the Committee of the Regions have sent a strong message and claim to deeply involve local and regional governments in transition processes, and have mapped out key points on the direction transition should take.

Our staff is highly motivated and full of energy to go on this journey together with you.